Tuesday, August 02, 2005

World Peace: Feasible?

Aren't u sick of American Uni-polarity?
i am for sure.....
Paradoxically, it is US "soft power", rather than its "hard power" that's most widely seen as a mortal danger. Apart from invasion (Iraq style), the loss of traditional norms and cultural identities due to pressures from the West is something many are apprehensive about.

But guess what? Multi-polarity is coming to stay.
The arrival of new great powers in the magic circle of those already extablished has historically tended to be a dangerous process, engendering hegemonial wars.
Obvious examples- Germany in the late 19th C and Japan in the early 20th C.
Both WW1 and WW2 were caused by the arrivals-- inflicting what i would call "collateral damage" to the society of states around the world.
The tensions of the Cold war period (based on a simpler bipolar balance) might be multiplied.

Balance vs Concert
The world over the next 20 yrs would arrange itself either in a balance of power or a concert of powers. The more advantageous to peace, security and progress would be the latter.
The UN Security council is in theory a concert of powers, but a self-limiting one, still embodying the power balance of 1945. The current proposals for UN reform include the addition of 6 newcomers, without veto powers of cos. This would transfrom the Security council into a more realistic concert of contemporary powers, but the veto power of the orirginal five oculd still block action.

So far, the original G7 became the G8 with the addition of Russia (mostly for political rather den economic reasons). In 2004, the group invited the already overdue China to join. It could become G14 any moment with the appropriate 5 next countries being India (for every reason), Brazil (rep Latin America), Nigeria (rep Africa), Indonesia (rep Islamic societies in general), and maybe even Egypt (becos the Arab world is the current centre for plenty of anxiety).

A concert of powers doesn't eliminate the chances of war, but it diminishes and limits it, even if tensions still run high. A new cold war, between the US and China, or between Japan and China, or India and China or a Russia-CHina coalition and the US, with whatever allies it could recruit in Asia and the Pacific, would be a true nightmare. And honestly, there are plenty of tensions in the area that could precipitate such disasters.

That's why i think a viable, workable concert of powers, including all major govts of the future company of giants, remain as important to the world's long-term welfare.

I don't think i want to go into the Nuclear arms issue.
Hand tired.... dun wanna type.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

i just had to comment on this... so, a concert of powers doesn't necessarily indicate greater peace... historically, the closest we've come to a concert of powers was europe following ww I... economic interdependence was at a high point and there was no GREAT superpower... and we know what happened after that... in contrast, the cold war period - which was a bipolar international system up until this point has been relatively stable... for multipolarity to come and stay, another superpower must rise up... either that, or america must significantly decrease in its military or economic capabilities - which we know is not gonna happen any time soon... the argument that china will rise up may be valid, but only after (at least) 50 years... so who's left? the european union? the EU is content with American unipolarity as it guarantees their security as well - NATO... this doesn't mean they don't complain, but there's no reason for them or the Asia Pacific to challenge the world order right now... so... what's the best prognosis for the world's international system? probably a continuation of the status quo... ok, i'm just kiddin around... hope things r going well w/ u...

Mishi said...

hehe, i liked the word- concert. ; ) haha. hope u're well too!

Anonymous said...

i was just being a pretentious punk... haha

psyencex said...

i'm sure u know that there can only be world peace when christ comes back for the millenia rule ;)


did i spell it correctly? i think not. lazy to spellcheck

Mishi said...

amen, meanwhile all other alternatives are but stalling disaster. ;p millenia correct spelling!